CHELSEA FC
1.48 CF VALENCIA v KRC GENKo2½ 1.77 FC VIKTORIA PLZENPK 1.48 1 Parlay of 3 Teams X $62.74 =
$179.15

Hey everyone, I'm just going to write up a preview with a pick for an NBA game tonight as a trial for the SBRWriter position.  Hope you like it.

The Philadelphia 76ers are in Boston tonight to take on the Celtics.  The Celtics have been a surprsingly efficient offensive team this season, as they are averaging 101.4 points per game.  The total on this game is a head scratcher, it currently sits at 192 points.  This wouldn't normally seem to signal any red flags, however, when you take a closer look at the numbers it becomes an interesting debate. 

The matchup tonight will be the second time these two teams square off in the new young season, with the Celtics taking the first matchup in Philadelphia by a score of a 102-101.  This should have already signaled something on your radar.  The Celtics average 101.4 points per game, and these teams have already met once this year with the total going for 203 points.  Yet, tonight's total is set at a lowly 192 points.  Unless Las Vegas has word that Zach Randolph is reffing this game tonight (42 minutes), it seems this total is a little low.  However, could Vegas be this wrong?  As I mentioned earlier, Boston averages a solid 101.4 points per game, and the 76ers are allowing 97.1 per game.  That averages out to about 99 points scored for them tonight.  Then, the 76ers total would seem to be in the realm of their 96.3 points per game scored combined with the 91.8 points per game allowed by the Celtics to the tune of about 94 points tonight.  This would put the total at 193 points. 

When you add this to the equation, you have a previous meeting already between these teams this season where the total was 11 points more than this line, combined with an average statistical score of 193 points based on their average scores.  This all seems to smell of a low total.  Las Vegas is better than this, what are they trying to pull on us here?  Is there more to this equation?

Well, perhaps there is, especially in the 76ers recent history.  The under is 6-0 in 76ers last 6 games following a ATS loss, and also it is 9-0 in 76ers last 9 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  These signs certainly favor Vegas trying to pull the wool over our eyes on this one.  I'm not going to bite.  Their averages seem to indicate the total of 192 isn't far off from their average score of 193, this could sway based on one basket made throughout the match.  I'm going to assume that Las Vegas knows something we don't, and jump on the under 192 in this one.  Enjoy the game, and good luck if you play it!

 

UNDER 192 in this one.  Best of luck. 

Date placed:
Oct 03, 2010 11:23a2 Team Teaser #187857746 (Placed by Web)Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
WEEK 4
(210) Atlanta Falcons -1 Sun@12:00p
Competitor:(209) San Francisco 49ersTeased 6.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
WEEK 4
(215) Indianapolis Colts -2 Sun@3:05p
Competitor:(216) Jacksonville JaguarsTeased 6.0 points
Risk [B]US$ 106.00[/B] to win [B]US$ 96.36[/B]


Date placed:
Oct 03, 2010 11:20a5 Team Teaser #187855988 (Placed by Web)Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
WEEK 4
(201) Baltimore Ravens +8½ Sun@12:00p
Competitor:(202) Pittsburgh SteelersTeased 6.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total
WEEK 4
(201) Baltimore Ravens vs. (202) Pittsburgh Steelers Over 28½ Sun@12:00p
Teased 6.0 points
Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
WEEK 4
(203) Cincinnati Bengals +3...

Yes, I'm a Packer's season ticket holder...however...

The Packers are clearly a better team than the Bears...that was a domination through and through IN Chicago on a national stage...only to be both raped by officials AND beaten by our own stupidity. I have no problems with feeling 100% confident of a solid victory if we have to play our starters against you in Green Bay in early January...however, it's about a W or L, and for that, we biffed it. Mike McCarthy has routinely lacked the "killer instinct"...and game after game I watch this Packer's team go up by...

The Orlando Magic are coming off of the heels of perhaps their biggest win of the season. They recently just beat the L.A. Lakers in Orlando, in what should amount to a little confidence builder for them. As they fly high going into tonight's game, the same can't be said for their opponent tonight, the other team from L.A., the Clippers. The lowly Clippers are giving new meaning to the term, "cover machine"...that is, everyone who plays them has been easily covering. The Clippers enter Orlando tonight coming off the heels of three straight games where...

The Orlando Magic are coming off of the heels of perhaps their biggest win of the season.  They recently just beat the L.A. Lakers in Orlando, in what should amount to a little confidence builder for them.  As they fly high going into tonight's game, the same can't be said for their opponent tonight, the other team from L.A., the Clippers.  The lowly Clippers are giving new meaning to the term, "cover machine"...that is, everyone who plays them has been easily covering.  The Clippers enter Orlando tonight coming off the heels of three straight games where their smallest margin of defeat has been 17 points.  They've lost their last 3 contests by a total of 64 points.  So, what's it mean tonight that the Clippers are only getting 11.5 points?  Well, it basically means the Magic will cover easy...but let's do the usual work anyway.

Sagarin rankings show us exactly what we already knew.  The Magic are ranked 3rd in the league, while the Clippers check in tonight at 22nd.  The Clippers are 5-19 SU vs the NBA's top 10 teams, and the Magic are 21-12 againts the NBA's bottom 16 teams.  This means that the Magic are 23-8 SU against the NBA's worst 14 teams.  This should come as no surprise, but nonetheless the way these two teams stack up tonight. It's also worthy of noting that, ATS, the Magic are the 14th ranked team in the NBA, while the Clippers are 22nd ranked.  In terms of Home and Away being a matter when considering ATS numbers, the Magic are 16-14-1 ATS at home, while the Clippers are 12-19 ATS away from L.A. 

As I mentioned before, these two teams couldn't be any more opposite than they are right now in terms of form and recent performances.  While the Magic appear to be in complete cruise control mode right now, the Clippers are a crowd pleasing 5-15 their last 20 games, and at this point should really start considering mailing it in.  By no means do I condone that type of play or anything, but I mean, it isn't as though teams don't do this, or at least consider doing this.  Sure, they'll have to play competitively against the poorer teams they face, or risk being criticized by the league, etc etc etc...however, against teams like the Magic, in Orlando, this team should be in near full lay-down mode.  Now, will they be?  You would certainly think not, but what happens when this Clippers team gets down by 10 points before halftime?  What if they are down 15?  Certainly, they will then lack the intensity to keep fighting.  I think the Magic are riding a high wave right now, and rather than a let down, I think we'll see a lot of that energy flow over into this game and the adrenaline of the Magic should carry them to an easy victory, and a solid cover.  I think this line should be closer to 14 points...so, get on it now, and let's enjoy a solid victory tonight as the Magic thump the Clippers in Orlando.  BOL all.

 

My Pick: Orlando -11.5 at home vs. Clippers tonight.  GL.

[FONT=Arial][SIZE=2]The William and Mary Tribe have the chance to win their first ever CAA tournament title tonight. However, a big road block for them stands in the way. Old Dominion. Historically, Old Dominion has crushed W&M. ODU leads the all-time series between these two schools by a margin of 62 - 15. That's a pretty heavy advantage when you look at their pasts. The spread for this one is set currently at 9 points. It's easy to see why, as these teams have met twice already this season in CAA action, with ODU...[/FONT][/SIZE]

The William and Mary Tribe have the chance to win their first ever CAA tournament title tonight.  However, a big road block for them stands in the way.  Old Dominion.  Historically, Old Dominion has crushed W&M.  ODU leads the all-time series between these two schools by a margin of 62 - 15.  That's a pretty heavy advantage when you look at their pasts.  The spread for this one is set currently at 9 points.  It's easy to see why, as these teams have met twice already this season in CAA action, with ODU taking each game by 3 and 19 points.  This is an adverage of 11 points, but you also have to throw in the 2 points for it being on a neutral court.  Overall, W&M played ODU tough at home, and was completely out-classed on the road.  That would seem to think on a neutral court, it isn't an obvious answer as to how this game will play out.  Even if the numbers do crunch up to ODU taking this game on the ML, by how much will they win?

When you examine the records for these teams, it becomes interesting what you see.  The home records shake out with William & Mary at 10-3, while ODU checks in at 15-0. Already, we see that ODU is a great home team...but, this game isn't at home.  This game is being played on a neutral floor in Richmond.  Both of these schools are from VA, so this shouldn't give an edge to either team necessarily.  The away records for these teams stand as William & Mary at 10-6, while ODU currently sits at 8-6. Despite the great home record for ODU, they do sturggle a little bit for a good team during road play.  W&M has a better road record, so the mentality of not playing in comfortable territory should favor W&M slightly int his match-up.  We also have a little bit of neutral record information from these teams, as William & Mary is 2-0, while ODU 2-2 on neutral ground.  I don't think that bears too much weight, but it is at least mentionable that W&M does have neutral court experience as well as ODU, so this won't be shocking to either team. 

ODU brings a 15-3 record in CAA action to the tournament, but they haven't dominated their way to this championship game.  They played a good VCU team already who took them to OT, after the Monarchs trailed by as much as 12 in the second half...this should factor into the game, as both teams are likely to be tired as well.  I think ODU has all but locked up a spot in the big dance already, while they won't want to leave things to chance, William and Mary needs a win to realistically make the big dance.  They've done a solid job getting to this point of the CAA tournament, but for all intensive purpopes, their life is on the line tonight.  They have to come to play, and they should keep this one closer than 9 points.  I think a 4-8 point victory is quite likely for ODU.  Good luck tonight everyone.

I see great value in this play tonight. The Hoyas head to West Virginia to take on the Huggins-led Mountianeers. Morgantown has proved to be a tough place for teams to play this year, as WVU is 12-2 at home this season. The Hoyas on the road, well, that's a different issue. They are 6-4. In what is probably the toughest conference in the country, that isn't too shabby though. Georgetown is putting together another pretty solid season as they tend to do...but tonight is a big test for them as they head to...

I see great value in this play tonight.  The Hoyas head to West Virginia to take on the Huggins-led Mountianeers.  Morgantown has proved to be a tough place for teams to play this year, as WVU is 12-2 at home this season.  The Hoyas on the road, well, that's a different issue.  They are 6-4.  In what is probably the toughest conference in the country, that isn't too shabby though.  Georgetown is putting together another pretty solid season as they tend to do...but tonight is a big test for them as they head to Morgantown.

Heading to the RPI rankings to get a better glimpse of how these teams stack up in the overall picture of the conference...we see that the Hoyas are ranked at 11th, while the Mountaineers are ranked 6th.  That's pretty similar when you consider there are over 120 teams in this ranking system.  Now, a quick glance at the strength of schedule will also tell us just how similar these teams really are.  WVU is ranked a very impressive 4th in this category.  But where is Georgetown?  Well, they currently have the #1 ranked strength of schedule in the entire country.  This is also pretty impressive, of course.  So, in the rankings, we see that these teams are virtually twins...5 ranks seperate them in overall RPI, but 3 points seperate them the other way in terms of strength of schedule.  So, what will shake down tonight when they meet on the hardwood??

Recent form tells us that Georgetwon is trending down a little bit, while both teams are trying to get some momentum heading into the conference tournament.  Syracuse has locked up the title for the Big East...but that doesn't matter to these teams here.  Georgetown will be keen to get up and play a good game after their recent performances.  With these teams so closely ranked in the RPI standings, as well as the Big East standings, how do the bookies justify giving 7 points here?  I think you have to look no further than those recent performances.  Yes, the Hoys have lost 8 games this year...but only 3 of those 8 have been by more than 7 points.  I think the Hoyas have a great chance to cover this one, and they even surprise in this game overall and put together a class performance in the face of adversity.  The Hoyas need this game, and they should come ready to fight and scrap more so than their recent performances.  Yes, the Hoyas have lost 3 of 4 recently, but they are better than that, they will come to play tonight, and I have this game capped at about 4 points, max.  The Big East is as tough a conference as there is in the country, and any game could be the one that tips the scales in favor of another team.  This is a picture perfect of that game.  The Hoyas have been victim of this lately, and perhaps tonight they can spring a surprise thesmelves in this one.  This should be a solid money winner tonight on Monday for us.  Best of luck all.

 

My Pick: Georgetown +7.5 (buy the hook).  BOL